Both Washington and Tehran are claiming victory from the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. One of them is wrong. According to a forensic analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the most prominent defense and foreign policy think tank in Washington, neither side can honestly claim a triumph — but Iran got considerably more than the United States bargained for.
The full text of the framework agreement with Iran is now public, and it is lopsided. Iran gets most of what it wants, and gets it upfront — before negotiations on a final deal even begin. The United States gets very little. Israel gets even less.
This is a damning verdict from an institution not known for hyperbole. To understand why CSIS reaches this conclusion, it is necessary to examine what each party conceded and what each received.
Sanctions relief — immediately: The deal waives U.S.-backed sanctions on Iranian oil while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. Iran’s oil exports — the lifeblood of its sanctioned economy — can resume before a final agreement is reached.
$300 billion reconstruction fund: Republicans have particularly objected to the $300 billion fund to help Iran rebuild — far greater than the $1.7 billion Obama returned under the 2015 Iran deal. This figure has shocked even Trump’s allies on Capitol Hill.
No immediate nuclear verification: The memorandum does not set a timeframe for renewed IAEA inspections, saying only that all matters relating to the Iranian enrichment program will be agreed as part of a final deal. Iran’s nuclear stockpile remains unverified and unconstrained during the 60-day window.
Regime survival: The Iranian government, despite losing Supreme Leader Khamenei and suffering enormous military damage, survives. The regime was not decapitated. A new supreme leader has been installed. The revolutionary structure of the state endures.
A ceasefire: After nearly four months of war costing an estimated $34–42 billion, the shooting has stopped — for now.
A promise of nuclear talks: Iran has agreed to discuss, in principle, restrictions on enrichment as part of a final deal. No specifics. No timelines. No verification mechanism in place.
Partial Strait of Hormuz reopening: The U.S.-backed IMEC corridor had sought to bolster resilience against the weaponization of chokepoints, yet the Iran war closed the very waters the transport corridor relies on — forcing a rethink on future routes.
Israel enters the post-memorandum period in a deeply uncomfortable position. Its forces remain deployed in southern Lebanon, Iran is demanding their withdrawal as a condition for comprehensive peace, and the U.S. has signaled it will not insist on Israel’s terms in the final deal.
According to the CSIS framework analysis, Israel gets even less than the United States from the current deal structure.
The tone from Tehran since the deal signing has not been the language of a defeated nation. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf described the Islamabad agreement as “a declaration of America’s defeat,” arguing that security in the Middle East must be ensured by the countries of the region.
This framing — of the world’s dominant military power as having been bested by a severely damaged, sanctioned state — is not just domestic propaganda. It carries real strategic weight in the region, where perceptions of American resolve and reliability directly shape the behavior of allies and adversaries alike.
The memorandum starts a 60-day clock for a comprehensive agreement. CSIS analysts assess that the framework kicks negotiations on harder issues down the road and leaves key questions unanswered — and that both the United States and Iran will claim victory, but both have lost in important ways.
If talks collapse, the ceasefire is not guaranteed to hold. Iran’s nuclear program would remain unconstrained. The $300 billion reconstruction fund becomes a political football in Congress. And the United States would face the grim choice of re-engaging militarily or accepting a nuclear-capable Iran.
The Islamabad Memorandum bought time. Whether that time is used wisely — whether the 60-day window produces genuine denuclearization commitments with verifiable timelines — will determine whether this deal is remembered as the beginning of regional stability or the prelude to a second round of conflict.
The lopsidedness of the current terms means the pressure on negotiators to extract meaningful concessions from Iran in the final deal is enormous. Whether the Trump administration has the diplomatic bandwidth, political capital, and strategic patience to deliver remains an open and deeply contested question.
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